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Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Data and Auction Pass Without Trace. Bring on Yellen

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Whether or not Yellen actually says something that moves markets on Friday is unimportant. Maybe she will. Probably she won't. Either way , we just need her speech to come and go so bond markets can move on with their lives. And here's another curveball: i t's not necessarily that Yellen's speech is the focal point of all of the recent bond market indecision as much as it happens during a particularly indecisive time of year. If you emailed every market participant every day of the year, you'd get more "out of office" responses this week than on any other non-holiday week. Traders who were actually in the office today did very little in terms of carrying out bigger-picture goals. Bonds were perfectly unchanged from the overnight session and experienced only slightly...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Still Sideways and That's Great!

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates , like most other interest rates, have seen record-setting levels of inactivity over the past 90 days. The Brexit vote in late June pushed rates to all-time lows and then the jobs report in early July pushed them back in the other direction. But after one week of correction, rates found themselves right in line with the pre-Brexit lows, and they've been stone cold sideways ever since. That might sound tedious and boring on an analytical level, but it's actually great news for mortgage markets. It has the dual benefit of allowing operational staffs some time to catch their breath after the frenzy of activity earlier in the Summer, all the while keeping rates close enough to all-time lows to provide excellent opportunity for any potential mortgage borrowers. In fact, the past 90...(read more)

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Appraisal and Inventory Issues Complicate Existing Sales Numbers

Posted To: MND NewsWire

" Frustratingly low inventory levels in many parts of the country" take the blame from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) for a drop in July existing home sales, the first loss after four straight months of gains. Resales of single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops were 3.2 percent below the level of sales the previous month and were slower on an annual basis for the first time since last November, coming in 1.6 percent below the rate in July 2015. Completed home sale transactions were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million in July compared to 5.57 million in June and 5.48 million in July of last year. It was only the second time in 21 months that sales failed to better their year-earlier numbers. The numbers were below even the lowest of analysts' estimates...(read more)

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New FEMA Proposal and Random Sample of Disaster Policies From Lenders

Posted To: Pipeline Press

It is hard to find a mortgage banker that isn’t hell-bent on expanding – sometimes just for the sake of expanding. But many companies soon find out how hard and expensive it is owning a far-flung empire of brick & mortar. Not in the mortgage biz, but near & dear to the hearts of many, is one very successful company that vows not to expand much farther: why In-N-Out Burger won't go East . Sorry Atlantic seacoast residents. Turning to changes driven more by nature, fire & water, one can't help but see the diversity between the fire ravaged West Coast and the floods in other parts of the nation such as Louisiana. But did I read this right: JPMorgan Chase donated $200,000 for flood relief in LA ? I guess bank profit margins are darned tight. A coalition of unlikely allies...(read more)

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Fannie/Freddie Collaborate on New Loan Application

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While it won't be available for more than a year, the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have unveiled a new Uniform Residential Loan Application (URLA) . The new form, for use in applying for a single-family mortgage, will contain the first substantial revisions to the application in more than 20 years. In addition to applying for Fannie and Freddie's mortgages the new form can be used for mortgages that are federally insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the Veterans Administration (VA), or the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Housing Service (RHS). The redesigned URLA resulted from collaboration of the two GSEs with lenders, technology solution providers, mortgage insurers, trade associations, housing advocates, borrower groups, and...(read more)

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Potentially Significant Shift in Home Price Trends -FHFA

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Prices of homes financed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac increased by 0.2 percent from May to June the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said today. The year over year change was a positive 5.6 percent . Both June numbers were unchanged from the monthly and yearly increases posted in May but the pace of appreciation has slowed from the year-to-date high of 0.7 percent and 6.1 percent reported for March. Home prices at the end of the second quarter, were 1.2 percent higher than at the end of the first quarter. FHFA said the 5.6 percent increase from the end of Q2 in 2015 was slightly higher, 5.7 percent, when adjusted for inflation as prices for other goods and services were virtually unchanged over that 12-month period. "Although the appreciation rate for the second quarter was of similar...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Why The First Reaction to Yellen Might Not Be Our "Final Answer"

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Welcome to another episode of Extreme Boredom: Bond Market Edition. In today's episode, bonds are pressing even further into record territory, only it's not any sort of record in terms of prices or yields. Rather, today is adding to a record-breaking absence of movement! You read that right: bonds have NEVER been flatter for longer , and you got to witness it! (Assuming you're awake...) We can quantify "the most sideways" designation for the world's benchmark interest rate (US 10yr) with something like the ADX (which we previously discussed HERE ). This technical overlay simply allows us to observe the strength of any given trend. If rates were generally moving in the same direction on most days, the little purple line (ADX) in the chart would move higher. But when...(read more)

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Mortgage Applications Drift Aimlessly With Rates

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage applications continued their modest downward track during the week ended August 19. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, fell 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week, the fourth out of five weeks it has declined. The Index was down 3 percent on an unadjusted basis. The share of applications that were for refinancing slipped to 62.2 percent from 62.6 percent and the Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index lost 0.3 percent and the unadjusted Purchase Index was down 2 percent compared with the week ended August 12. Purchases were 8 percent higher than during the same week in 2015. Refi Index vs 30yr Fixed Purchase Index vs 30yr Fixed The FHA...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About "The Range?"

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We might have expected a bigger movement in the wake of the colossal improvement in New Home Sales (654k vs 582k previously, 580k forecast), but bonds barely budged. In fact, the first move following the data was into STRONGER territory for bonds. Treasuries eventually gave up some ground heading into the afternoon, but MBS didn't follow. The differences in relative performance are far from troubling. They were simply more noticeable because Treasuries were in weaker territory day-over-day while MBS were stronger. In other words, Treasuries were red and MBS were green, but both were close enough to 'unchanged.' The 2yr Treasury auction went off without a hitch, but it's tomorrow's 5yr auction that is more capable of causing movement for the MBS coupons we follow (Fannie...(read more)

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Mortgage Rate Movement Nowhere to be Found

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates were sharply sideways today, with almost every lender offering the exact same terms as yesterday. This is part of an ongoing phenomenon that's seen rates rise just slightly from near-all-time lows in early July only to hold an intensely narrow range for more than a month now. To be clear, there are no historical examples of rates moving any less over the course of a month, although there have been a handful of roughly similar time frames. Bottom line, rates are as narrow and inactive as they can be. When it comes to following rates and broader financial markets, the conventional wisdom is that longer-lasting and more narrow the trading range, the bigger the breakout will be. The only catch is that the breakout can happen in either direction. As far as catalysts for such a break...(read more)

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Biggest Monthly Gain For New Home Sales in 10 Years

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Rather than the month-over-month decline expected, July new home sales soared above 600,000 units for the first time since late 2007. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported on Tuesday that newly constructed homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000 during the month, a 12.4 percent gain from June's downwardly adjusted rate of 582,000 (from 592,000). This was a 31.3 percent increase from a year earlier when sales sold at a rate of 498,000 units. Analysts surveyed by Econoday had expected sales to come in somewhere in the range of 556,000 to 590,000. The consensus was 580,000 units. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis there were 57,000 new homes sold, up from 53,000 in June and 43,000 in July 2015. The median price of a home sold during...(read more)

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New and Old Lawsuits - Notable Settlements; Training/Events; Underwriter Comp Study

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The whole residential lending industry is abuzz about the article on housing in the Economist . "A decade on, the presumption is that the mortgage-debt monster has been tamed . In fact, vast, nationalized, unprofitable and undercapitalized, it remains a menace to the world's biggest economy...But until America's mortgage monster is brought to heel, the task of making finance safer will remain only half-done." What could be worse? Let's ask Olympic swimmer Ryan Lochte, who lost every one of his sponsors yesterday. Before I go any further, there is a correction to yesterday's commentary regarding the due date for bids on servicing that MIAC is selling. (...MIAC's $1.5 billion FNMA and FHLMC mortgage servicing portfolio with an optional co-issue opportunity totaling $50 to $100 million per month...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds May Not Even Want to be Inspired Just Yet

Posted To: MBS Commentary

To say that bonds have been range-bound recently would be an understatement. I'm running out of ways to say it, and perhaps you're running out of the desire to read the same news on a different day. So let's change things up just a bit and bring stocks back into the mix. First off, stocks have really gone out the window in terms of explaining bond market movement as the year has progressed. This is in stark contrast to the beginning of the year when we couldn't stop talking about the major stock sell-off (and major correlation with falling oil prices and bond yields)--especially during January. Let's take a look at how 2016's stock/bond relationship has played out in the context of that late-2015/early-2016 relationship. The following chart is scaled based on the highs...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: In Shocking Twist of Fate, Bonds Remain Range-Bound

Posted To: MBS Commentary

I apologize for tricking you with the title. The "shocking" part was unabashed sarcasm . It's not that anyone here is clairvoyant. Certainly, we never have any assurance of market movement that takes place in the future. But with the benefit of just a bit of hindsight, it would be fair to say that certain market movements are unsurprising. At the present moment, it would continue to be unsurprising for bond markets to trade in a narrow range. Whether yields continue holding inside the exact same pattern of consolidation seen in the chart, I cannot say, but at the very least, it should be close. Incidentally, the only reason to doubt the continuance of the current trend is that it's become so narrow as to be easily broken by a fairly average day of market movement.) If it isn't...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates were almost imperceptibly lower today, although underlying bond markets improved more noticeably. Why would rates not be more improved then? Part of the reason is the timing of Friday's market movements and lender rate sheet release times. Markets deteriorated after most lenders posted rates on Friday, but few lenders went to the trouble of raising rates during the day. Lenders that held steady on Friday would have likely posted higher rates today. But because of the market improvement, they were able to stay in line with Friday's offerings or improve just slightly. Later in the week, we'll hear from Fed Chair Yellen at Jackson Hole. This is one of those events that has high POTENTIAL to cause market movement, but not necessarily a guarantee . Between now and then, rates are...(read more)

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Delinquency Increase is Seasonal- Black Knight

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage delinquencies rose slightly in July; a change Black Knight Financial Services sees as seasonal. The number of mortgages that were 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure rose by 108,000 from June, pushing the delinquency rate up by 4.78 percent to 4.51 percent. Black Knight, in its "first look" at the month's mortgage performance statistics, says months that end on a Sunday, as July did, usually see an increase in non-performance followed by a decline the following month. On a year-over year basis the rate is down by 3.38 percent and there are 70,000 fewer loans in delinquent status although the total of loans that are 30 days past due but not in foreclosure remains at an elevated level of 2.29 million. Seriously delinquent loans , 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure...(read more)

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