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Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Treasuries Get The Glory as MBS Hold Ground

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Glory was limited, in general, today. Most of it went to Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Put in plainer terms, 10yr yields fell 2-3bps on the day while MBS were generally unchanged. In thinking about what's up with that, we should keep the following bullet points in mind: It's the week of month/quarter-end. This doesn't necessarily favor Treasuries, but it CAN favor just about any market sector depending upon how money managers are forced to adjust portfolios to match certain indices. Read more about month-end buying HERE if you're curious. Much of the positivity was driven by European trading. MBS are one more degree removed from the global bond market effect. Treasuries logically get more benefit from gains in European bond markets. MBS are coming off one of their best streaks...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates maintained their recent winning streak today, falling for the 5th straight day. The average lender is now offering the best rates in nearly 2 months. You'd have to go back early August or late July (depending on the lender) to see a better combination of rate and upfront cost. This brings up a caveat that has been important in the past few months. The outright range of rate movement has been exceptionally small! We talk about "rates" moving every day, but that's just convenient shorthand for "the combination of NOTE RATE and UPFRONT LENDER COSTS." Those upfront costs are sometimes referred to as "points," but that isn't a universal definition. Regardless of the label, this refers to whatever costs the lender is charging (or paying) at closing. These usually include things like...(read more)

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New DU Version Enhances use of Trended Credit

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae has announced the implementation of a new version of its automated underwriting system . The company said Version 10.0 of Desktop Underwriter (DU) "provides more simplicity and certainty to lenders through the use of trended credit data for enhanced credit risk assessment and new automated underwriting capabilities to serve borrowers with no traditional credit and for borrowers with multiple financed properties." The company introduced the concept of trended credit data with enhancements to DU in October 2015. It said the new version of the software will promote "the first widespread use in the mortgage industry, and will benefit both consumers and lenders." DU 10.0 will assist in using trended credit in risk assessment, allowing underwriters to take into account the monthly payment...(read more)

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Versus Inflation, Home Price Increases Are Unsustainable -Case-Shiller

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While the annual gains in its nationwide index accelerated slightly in July the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indices showed a slight slowing on an annual basis. The U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions showed prices rising 5.1% over the 12 months ending in July compared to a June to June gain of 5.0 percent. On a month-over-month basis the National Index was up 0.7 percent (compared to 0.1 percent in June) on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and 0.4 percent when adjusted. The 10-City Composite Index slowed from a 4.3 percent appreciation in June to 4.2 percent in July and the 20-City slipped by 0.1 point to 5.0 percent. Portland, Seattle, and Denver led in gains among the 20 cities for the sixth consecutive month with Portland posting...(read more)

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Events From Coast to Coast; New LO comp Plan; All-Cash Deal Stats

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The media, both social and unsocial, are filled with thoughts about the presidential debate last night. Housing was not an issue, since, overall, things are pretty good. But let’s start with something non-mortgage with a favorite trivia question. Who is buried in Grant’s tomb? Nobody is buried in Grant’s tomb. President & Mrs. Grant are entombedthere. A body is buried only when it is placed in the ground and covered with dirt. As a reminder, the CFPB put out a 541 page memo on Loan Officer Compensation, officially called a Final Rule and Official Interpretation, CFPB Final Rules for LO Compensation . But there are still some interesting things going on with comp plans. Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group , which is both a lender and a servicer, recently launched a new payment...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Follow Europe; Debate of Little Consequence

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Heading into last night's presidential debate, there had been a small amount of buzz among market participants about the potential ifs and thens. The baseline assumption was that if Trump was perceived to have won the debate, it would be bad for stocks and potentially good for bonds due to the increased uncertainty associated with a non-establishment candidate. Conversely then, stocks should gain and bonds should lose if Clinton did better. I can't speak for media outlets, but most of the campfires in the analytical community gave the nod to Clinton. Right on cue, equities markets surged in overnight trading. Bonds, however, didn't stick to the script . Instead, they waited for European markets to get going before making any big moves. In fact, even stocks would eventually change...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Week Starts Strong as Bonds Move Further (Back) Into Range

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Up until roughly September 9th, yields had been holding inside a narrow, consolidating range for nearly 3 months. They've since spent most of the past two weeks in higher territory and only began reentry on Thursday and Friday of last week. When yields break outside this sort of range and then return to the range boundary as they did late last week, it's never a given that they will re-enter. In fact, many times we see a bounce at that range boundary as if to say "been there, done that... not going back." But as far as "going back" is concerned, bonds seem to be fairly warm to the concept so far. 10yr yields dropped nearly 4bps today, hitting the 3pm close just under 1.59. That's under the lowest possible "ceiling" that we'd been tracking when the...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Match September Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates were lower again today, marking the 4th straight day of improvements and the 8th day without a meaningful increase. This brings the average lender back in line with levels seen on September 7th. Before that, you'd have to go back at least to early August to see anything lower. Admittedly, the "lowest rates since early August" sounds a lot more exciting than it actually is. The overall range of rates during that time continues to be exceptionally narrow . For most lenders conventional 30yr fixed quotes never went above 3.5% during that time, and never went lower than 3.375% on top tier scenarios. The recovery from the higher rates seen 2 weeks ago allows a bit of breathing room from a strategy standpoint. In the bigger picture, it still makes sense to defend against the possibility...(read more)

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One Price Index Shows Long-Expected Price Slowdown

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Black Knight Financial Services released its Home Price Index (HPI) report for July on Monday and, unlike reports from CoreLogic and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reports for the month (the fourth report, the CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices is due out on Tuesday) it shows a distinct slowing in the pace of price appreciation over the past few months. Black Knight reports its national index for July was $266,000. This is 0.4 percent higher than its index for June and up 5.3 percent compared to August 2015. The month over month increase in May was 1.1 percent, declining to 0.8 percent in June. FHFA showed a pickup in the appreciation rate month-over-month and annually in both June and July while CoreLogic showed a 0.3 increase in the annual appreciation rate in July. The national HPI...(read more)

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August New Home Sales Retrench but Still Solid

Posted To: MND NewsWire

After a spectacular run for new home sales in July, it was anticipated that August activity would be considerably more modest. While sales did retrench from the post-crash highs reached the previous month (which improved even further when revised), the August numbers still came in above analysts' estimates The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development estimates that August sales of newly constructed single-family homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 609,000 , a 7.6 percent drop from July when the rate was 659,000 units, a number originally reported at 654,000. The August sales rate was 20.6 percent higher than that of a year earlier, 505,000. Analysts polled by Econoday had expected sales to be within a range of 575,000 to 630,000. The consensus was 598...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Could This Really Be The Big Bounce?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It seems that money managers and financial journalists will not relent in their calls for US bond yields to have reached a long-term floor this summer and to now be in the process of moving inevitably higher. That's a fear that's much easier to have when bonds have been moving steadily higher for nearly 3 months now. In fact, I can empathize. I'd like to think that my outlook on bonds is completely unbiased at any point in time, but I often ask myself "am I feeling bullish simply because rates have been falling" and "am I defensive simply because rates have been moving higher?" These are natural tendencies, and we should keep them in mind any time we hear someone claiming rates have to go higher in the weeks following a long-term low. In other words, yes... it's...(read more)

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Thornburg, Sindeo, and Caliber News; DU 10.0 Changes; Freddie to Tweak Underwriting?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Tonight we can all watch a big job interview on TV at 9PM ET. And whether it is money or other things, sometimes you if don’t ask for it, you won’t get it. When Andrew Carnegie, who said, “He who dies rich, dies disgraced,” sold his steel company to J.P. Morgan for $480 million in 1901 he became the richest man in the world. He was even congratulated by J.P. Morgan when the two men ran into each other on an ocean liner. But Carnegie admitted that he couldn’t help thinking that the financier might have given him another $100 million if he’d asked for it. “Very likely, Andrew,” Morgan replied. Asking that question early on, and the answer to it, would have built a lot more libraries. STRATMOR brought out its September Insight report . Lots of companies...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: After Fed, Bonds Tune Out Into Weekend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For MBS Live members, this recap will largely be a rehash of the day's most recent update which pointed out a consolidative range in force over the past two days. Bond weakened just enough for a small amount of concern earlier today, but a friendly bounce let us know that traders had likely decided on the range for the rest of the day. Here was the chart from that update: And here is a more zoomed in version showing us how the rest of the day has played out (through the 3pm close). The takeaway here is that this week's FOMC events were good enough for token rally in bonds. It is nice to see, though it's still a "safe" move considering it doesn't take us officially back into the previous "post-Brexit" range that dominated most of July and August. Next week...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Lowest in Weeks

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates continued steadily lower today, adding to a string of improvements that brings them to their best levels in more than 2 weeks. Rates have now re-entered the narrow "post-Brexit" range that began shortly after the UK's vote to leave the European Union sent rates plunging toward all-time lows. Our current position is precarious in the bigger picture. Market movements (specifically, bond markets) underlie mortgage rate movement. When it comes to market movements a narrow range like that seen in the wake of Brexit is typically followed by a more convicted move in one direction or the other. The direction tends to be that of the first major break of the range. Because the first major break was toward higher rates, we could say that markets are "breaking the rules" if rates now attempt...(read more)

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August Refi Surge Reflected in Higher Conventional Lending Share

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Refinancing jumped to 43 percent of all loans originated in August, a 6 percentage point higher share than in July. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report says this takes the refi share back to a level last seen in March. The share of all loans closed during the month with FHA backing slipped three percentage points to 20 percent with conventional financing increasing by that amount to a 68 percent share. The VA share was unchanged from the previous month at 9 percent. The mix of conventional loans shifted to reflect the surge in refinancing. Those loans rose from 47 percent of all conventional loans in July to 54 percent. The average time to close all loans remained steady at 46 days for the third consecutive month. The time to close a refinance decreased by two days to 46 days while the purchase...(read more)

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Stearns Picks up KB Home JV; Ocwen News; Impact of Prepayments Increasing

Posted To: Pipeline Press

While the industry is buzzing about how Wells Fargo has unfortunately killed any chance to reform the CFPB (i.e., cutting back its power or structure), and that whoever supposedly prepped Chairman Stumpf for this testimony should be terminated, recently I spent some time in Milwaukee visiting with the folks from Inlanta Mortgage . It was refreshing to hear them talk about "mortgage banking for grown-ups," and their mood reflected that of the industry: hopeful optimism that doing the right thing will prevail in the long run. Also going on in Wisconsin is evidence that the seasons are changing. Welcome to fall: yesterday, mid-day, was the autumnal equinox. In many parts of the nation leaves are starting to turn color and drop to the ground. And then what? The California Law Offices of Peter Brewer...(read more)

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